Sold Covidien

It's been an active day for me, in addition to buying NRG LEAPS I also sold my shares of Covidien (COV) at $50.99.  I purchased COV in May of 2009 at $32.39 a share, so the returns on this investment were decent (however, the market's return over this time period was also very strong, so I'm not overly thrilled with how COV turned out). 

Questions?  Comments?  Email mevsemt@gmail.com 

NRG Order Filled

It looks like the rest of my order for NRG 2013 $30 LEAPS went through (for a total of 100 contracts).  All in all this order cost just under $6,100.  I'll try to do a write up later this week or maybe this weekend (if time permits). 

Questions?  Comments?  Email mevsemt@gmail.com

New Purchase

On Friday I placed a limit order for 100 contracts of NRG Jan 2013 $30 LEAPS at $0.60, but unfortunately it's only been filled on 5 contracts (thus far). 

I'll keep this order open and hopefully I'll be able to get it 100% filled.  However, rather than write a separate post each time I get another couple of contracts, I'll just post when the order closes (either b/c it was filled or canceled).

Questions?  Comments?  Email mevsemt@gmail.com

Buying some Cisco

I just bought 1000 shares of Cisco (CSCO) at $18.87.  I view Cisco as a high quality company that's somewhat undervalued, so while I don't expect massive returns I still think I'll do pretty well.  Also, IMO holding CSCO is significantly more attractive than holding cash (this transaction took my portfolio from $54K cash down to $35.5K), so it makes sense from an overall portfolio construction perspective. 

Questions?  Comments?  mevsemt@gmail.com

Sold SD Call Options

On Friday I sold my Sandridge call options, which have appreciated nicely since I purchased them a little over 5 months ago (here's my original post: http://mevsemt.blogspot.com/2010/08/fool-me-once.html ).  Specifically, I bought 50 contracts for $1.07 (or a total cash outlay of $5,387) and sold them at $3.65 (for proceeds of $18,211), netting me a profit of just under $13K. 

Interestingly enough, while my gut tells me Sandridge OPTIONS aren't a good risk/reward bet after their recent appreciation, I still think Sandridge STOCK is undervalued and could have a much better risk/reward profile.  Earlier this year I also sold HAWK, so my portfolio is about 40% (or $54K) in cash.  This being the case, I'm considering buying SD common stock, especially if it pulls back.  Other stocks on my watch list include CSCO, NRG LEAPS, JOE, BAC, and ESI... stay tuned.

Questions?  Comments?  Email me at mevsemt@gmail.com

Sold KHDHF

A few days ago 226 shares of KHDHF were deposited in my account (KHDHF was spun off from TTT), and today I sold them at $10.20 for net proceeds of about $2,300.

As I mentioned in my year end post TTT has been trading ex div since December, so my 2010 ending balance was artificially low (but with the KHDHF shares finally showing up in my account I'm whole again).

Sold HAWK

I don't have time to do a full write-up, but I wanted to post that I sold my 1,000 shares of HAWK at $7.45 today.  My purchase price was $9.11, so I ended up lossing about $1,660 on this position... oh well, I guess you can't win em all.

Options are weird...

As you may recall I purchased 75 SuperValu (SVU) Jan 2013 $15 LEAPS back in December.  The contract price back then was $.50, so including commissions my cash outlay was $3,810.  Back when I purchased these LEAPS SVU stock was trading around $8.60. 

Earlier this morning SVU released earnings and they were absolutely horrendous, in fact as I type the stock is down about 13% to $7.50.  HOWEVER, I was actually able to sell my contracts for $.70 today, which after commissions came to $5,195!! 

So, just to recap, in the past month SVU's stock has fallen about 15% while the LEAPS have gone up 36%... did I mention options are weird?

All's well that ends well???

2010 was interesting, for most of the year my returns lagged the S&P (click "Returns" under labels for all the details).  In fact, going into Q4 my portfolio was DOWN 2.8% whereas the S&P was UP 3.5%.   This being the case, I didn't think I'd actually beat the market this year (btw I'm sure there will be PLENTY of years where I lag the S&P).  Luckily, during the fourth quarter things turned around, and several of my holdings did quite well:

• SandRidge - I purchased SandRidge 2012 LEAPS at the end of August for $5,387 and as of year end they're worth $13,600 (for a total return of 152% in just over 4 months).  Click here for the original post: http://mevsemt.blogspot.com/2010/08/fool-me-once.html
• Jackson Hewitt - I bought Jackson Hewitt call options in the middle of September.  This started as a very speculative $525 bet, but now these options are worth $4,140.  Here are the related posts: http://mevsemt.blogspot.com/2010/09/all-or-nothing.html and http://mevsemt.blogspot.com/2010/12/jtx-follow-up.html.
• Sears - I bought 2013 LEAPS in November and December (http://mevsemt.blogspot.com/2010/11/transaction-alert-sears-holdings-2013.html and http://mevsemt.blogspot.com/2010/12/more-sears-leaps-in-eddie-we-trust.html) for a total outlay of $9,323.  Sears stock has jumped since then, and so has the value of the LEAPS (which are now worth $13,500).

So where does that leave us?  Well, I started 2010 with $107,514 and finished with $126,967 (this number is actually understated, see footnote [1]).  I didn't make any deposits or withdrawals, so this increase is straight appreciation: 

• On an absolute basis, my portfolio gained 18.1% for the year while the S&P (w/ dividends reinvested) was up 14.6%. 
• I've been tracking my returns for 5 years, during which time my annual rate of return is 18.4%.  Had I invested in an S&P index fund (and reinvested dividends) my annual returns would be 4.4%. In other words, I've outperformed the S&P by 14.0% per annum. 
• Click on the "My Returns So Far..." link to the right for full details and to see how this outperformance translates into real dollars - it's actually pretty significant.

Now I should stress that the 2010 11th hour outperformance could be dumb luck.  I've mentioned this many times before and I'll do so again: my portfolio is VERY concentrated and it tends to bounce around A LOT (click the image below to see my current portfolio along with any gains/losses, I included the bottom screen shot b/c it show my cash balance).

Now with all that out of the way, what are my thoughts going into 2011?  Well, the recent market rally has made me pretty nervous about both valuations in general and my portfolio in particular.  Following is a brief discussion about my portfolio as well as a few names on my watch list:

• I'd like to increase my cash position after the recent run up.  In fact, I could see it going over $30K in the near future.  I have to sell JTX b/c the options expire in a couple weeks.  I'm also considering selling COV/HAWK outright and maybe trimming a few other positions.
• My watch list is perhaps as small as it's ever been.  It includes CSCO, BAC, NRG, and maybe 2 or 3 other names.  These names haven't participated in the recent market rally and IMO could be somewhat resilient if the market pulls back.
• Call me crazy, but I think something could happen with Sears in 2011.  Of course I have no idea what that "something" might be, but the possibilities include selling real estate, increased brand distribution, a short squeeze... heck, I've even read speculation that Sears, Autozone, and/or Autonation could merge one day.  I should also emphasize that my purchase of Sears LEAPS had nothing to do with any of this (but it's fun to speculate!).
• I think SandRidge will continue to do well.  It was one of the first natural gas E&P companies to focus on oil and it did so very aggressively.  Also, recent (and future) asset sales have given the market a glimpse into how valuable this company could be, and the stock has responded accordingly.
• Lastly, I think we might see TTT make an acquisition.  I think the company's significant cash hoard is burning a hole in Michael Smith's pocket, and I'm very interested to see if he can come up with something. 

Well, that's about it... I'd like to wish everyone good luck heading into the new year, and if you have any questions/comments I can be reached at mevsemt@gmail.com.

[1] The $126,967 is understated because TTT is trading ex-div BUT the spunoff KHDHF shares haven't been deposited in my portfolio yet (b/c KHDHF is traded in Germany).  Anyway, my 2,268 shares of TTT translates to 226 shares of KHDHF.  Since KHDHF closed the year at $9.00 these shares are worth $2,034.  This means my portfolio balance is really $129,001, giving me a return of about 20%, but for consistency I'm going to stick with my official statements as reported by TradeKing. 

JTX Follow-up

I previously posted on Jackson Hewitt (JTX) here: http://mevsemt.blogspot.com/search/label/zCurrent%20Holding%3A%20JTX%20Options.

Basically, my thesis was this tax season would either make or break JTX, and this would largely be driven by whether JTX could find a partner to fund their RAL (Refund Anticipation Loan) product.  Further, I knew JTX would need to have their RAL funding lined up before the end of the year, so IMO this made Jan 2011 $2 call options the way to go.  Basically, I likened this to betting on a coin flip where the payout is better than 1:1 (maybe much better).

So here's where we stand: JTX has lined up 90% of its RAL funding and things are looking up.  As a result JTX stock has gone from < $1 at the beginning of December to $1.71 today.  Now the stock needs to go above $2 for me to make any money, but I'm cautiously optimistic this could happen... wish me luck!

PS - this was a very small (and speculative) investment on my part, so it'll really need to pay off big to have a significant impact on my portfolio.  Nonetheless, it's fun to watch!

* As a bit of house keeping I've decided to turn off the "Comments" feature on my blog.  The reason for this is I'd like to try corresponding with my readers more directly - so, if you have any questions/comments/insights/disagreements (especially disagreements as I always like to hear why I might be wrong) about this or another investment please email me directly at mevsemt@gmail.com.