On Friday I purchased 2 sets of call options in FAF for a combined outlay of about $2,000. The first was 10 contracts of FAF October 2010 $40 Calls at $1.10 and the second was 20 contracts of FAF June 2010 $37.50 Calls at $0.50. The price of FAF is currently around $35 a share, so both these call options are currently "out of the money."
This bet falls a little outside the realm of normal value investing. FAF is splitting into 2 companies on June 1st, one that focuses on title insurance and another that focuses on information services. My current thinking is that FAF has a fair value of about $50 a share, and my hope is the spinoff will act as a catalyst for FAF shares to appreciate.
The danger with this investment is that it's very short term - so if there's a broad market selloff these options could easily expire worthless. On the flip side, if the market rallies in the near term these options could be worth a lot of money.
In conclusion, this "investment" is 1/3 special situation, 1/3 value investing, and 1/3 luck - my guess is there's a 50% it'll make money and a 50% chance it won't. HOWEVER, if it does make money it'll be 3x to 4x my initial investment, which is why I felt comfortable making the bet in the first place.
Showing posts with label zz First American Financial. Show all posts
Showing posts with label zz First American Financial. Show all posts
Monday, May 17, 2010
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