Sunday, October 2, 2011

Returns as of Q3 2011

Man, these last two quarters have been miserable!  Not only have my returns been negative, but they've lagged the S&P too.  Oh well, I guess this type of thing happens with a concentrated portfolio.  Besides, over the last 5+ years I've managed to outperform the S&P by roughly 10% per year, so I'm still hopeful I'm doing something right!  Anyway, here's a quick summary of where I stand for 2011:  

  • I came into the year with $126,967.  During the year I've deposited $35,000 into my account.  YTD my holdings have DEPRECIATED by $22,073, leaving me with $139,894 as of 9/30/2011.  
  • YTD my annualized IRR has been -19.4% vs. -15.0% for the S&P (assumes dividends are reinvested AND the $35K I deposited was used to buy additional SPY shares at that day's closing price).  
As I mentioned above, even though I got my butt kicked these last two quarters, I'm still well ahead of the S&P for the last 5+ years.  See below for details (click image to enlarge):
I also included a waterfall graph that shows a little more detail.  The blue bars are the beginning and ending balances, the green bars show appreciation/depreciation, and the red bars represent deposits (click image to enlarge):
So what about my holdings in particular?  Well, in general I'm still cautiously optimistic.  In fact, I think some of my holdings have gotten down right cheap, especially SHLD, JOE, and AIG.  I'm also surprised we're seeing LUK trade this close to book value.  I mean these guys have compounded book value at 20% per year for 3+ decades and there's no premium on the stock price whatsoever!  Of course there's also plenty to be worried about; Europe's a mess, China's growth may be slowing, and Washington is slightly less functional then my 21-month-old daughter's daycare class.  Anyway, below is a snapshot of my current holdings as of 9/30/2011 (click image to enlarge):
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