Monday, August 19, 2013

Call Me Crazy...

You know, it isn't easy being a value investor, and this is especially true when you blog about your picks in real time.  After all, just about anything I buy has significant "headline risk," and is likely in the midst of some sort of turmoil.  In other words, I have to be willing to look dumb now with the hope of being right later.

So what's new?  Well, I'm not just waxing philosophical on a Monday afternoon.  In fact, this post is to alert my readers that I bought more SHLD options today.  Specifically, I bought 20 SHLD Jan 2015 $60 contracts for $2.95 (for a total outlay of $5,919).

Now I can almost hear the collective groan through my screen, "oh geez mevsemt, not more Sears!"  But here's the thing, SHLD has a decent margin of safety.  I'm mean they've got real estate, brands, Lands' End, 51% of Sears Canada, owned inventory, etc.  Of course they also have things on the other side of the balance sheet (like that pesky pension), but suffice it to say I think the assets far outweigh the liabilities.

There's also another interesting dynamic that could be going on here (warning: the following is idle speculation).  First, Eddie has been selling/trimming everything in his hedge fund except Sears, and I think he personally owns somewhere around +30 MM shares.  Concurrently, Bruce Berkowitz (a long time supporter of Eddie), has recently been accumulating Sears, and is now up to roughly 20 MM shares.  Hmmm... 50% of SHLD in friendly hands... could Eddie be winding down his hedge fund?

And ultimately, even if Eddie has no intention of quitting the hedge fund business, SHLD still represents an opportunity to invest alongside an incredibly talented investor and businessman at a reasonable price, and these situations don't happen everyday...

Questions? Comments? Email