Thursday, May 20, 2010

Random Musings

A little over a month ago I wrote a post entitled "Feeling Fearful" (which can be found here During this time I sold several stocks (SHLD and USG) and allocated about 30% of my portfolio to cash - in retrospect, it looks like my timing couldn't have been more lucky. Since then, the market has turned decidedly more fearful as the Eurozone mess has drawn an increasing amount of investor attention and oil gushes into the gulf.

Ironically, the oil spill disaster could prove beneficial for some of the stocks I own. A likely consequence of this mess is increased government regulation and decreased offshore drilling in the short to medium term. This in turn could lead to an increase in the price of oil and natural gas (natural gas in particular, b/c it can't be imported from overseas nearly as easily). IF this does indeed play out I'd expect SD, GMXR, and EXC to reap the benefit (SD and GMXR have onshore operations and EXC would benefit from an environment with higher energy prices in general).

On a negative note I expect the call options for FAF to expire worthless. In my initial post I wrote that a broad market sell off could cause this, and of course within a couple days the market began selling off...

HOWEVER, I think any further market sell off could present an attractive buying opportunity. So, with about 30% (about $34K) of my portfolio in cash, I am constantly refining and evaluating my watch list. Current stocks that I find interesting include BAX, APOL, CNX, GENZ, AHS as well as existing holdings SD, GMXR, and EXC.

As always I'll post about any transactions.